STORM FORECAST
VALID Thu 16 Feb 06:00 - Fri 17 Feb 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 15 Feb 21:16 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GATZEN

A threat level 1 is forecast across southern British Isles, northern France, Benelux, northwestern Germany

SYNOPSIS

Blocking situation over eastern Europe remains ... and long-wave trough over western Europe will be quasi-stationary during the period. In the range of this trough ... maritime airmass has spread into western and central Europe. To the south ... Mediterranean is covered by anticlyclonic flank of strong upper jet ... and stable conditions will remain.

DISCUSSION

...Northwestern Europe...
Interesting situation over northwestern and western central Europe remains ... with an upper long-wave trough that slows down as European blocking pattern remains ... and strong upper jet at its southern flank creates a well-developed delta flow over western and central Europe. Numerous vort-maxima will travel into this delta ... providing quite strong linear QG forcing. Affected maritime airmass is characterized by rich low-level moisture ... as well as steep or neutral low-level lapse rates ... and latest model output shows that CAPE will be present over a widespread region. A first strong vort-max has entered Central Europe on Wednesday ... and strong thunderstorms formed over western Germany. During Thursday's forecast period ... another strong vort-max is expected to travel from western Ireland over British Isles, northern France, Benelux, and most of Germany. The next strong vort-max will follow over British Isles. Weaker vort-maxima will also affect most of western and central Europe. In the range of this short-wave troughs ... showers and thunderstorms are expected to form ... and should likely organize given strong LLS and rather strong DLS underneath the upper level jet. Multicells/bowing lines and/or shallow mesocyclones are forecast ... capable of producing severe wind gusts, large hail, and probably a tornado. Most significant threat should be convective gusts ... and we decide to issue a (marginally) threat level one.

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